CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2019-05-11T02:39:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2019-05-11T02:39ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14737/-1
CME Note: The source of this signature is somewhat unclear. It could be associated with the arrival of a combination of 2 CMEs that started on 2019-05-10T19:09Z and 2019-05-11T02:39Z. From Dr. Lan Jian: The flux ropes separated by sharp boundaries could be due to the interaction of multiple CMEs. From the in-situ observations and Enlil modeling results, Earth was in the rarefaction before the CME arrived, this may be why the CMEs reached Earth so fast.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2019-05-13T22:06Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2019-05-14T23:50Z (-4.0h, +4.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM_V2. ************************************************************************************** Vo = 380.0 km/s u_r = 431.8 km/s Acceleration: 0.065 m/s^2 Duration in seconds: 337800.92 Duration in days: 3.9097329 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.06 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 453.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 14/05/2019 Time: 23:50 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 36.10 hour(s)
Difference: -25.73 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2019-05-12T10:00Z
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